Economics and Crises: Teaching my first general education course (Part 2)

It is hard to believe, but after this week we will be at the midpoint of the semester.  My general education course, Economics and Crises in Nepal, which covers social science methods, continues to go smoothly.  In the last post I provided an overview of the course outline and intent with a quick note on the topics selected by the students.

This post addresses the first section of the course in which we discuss selecting the research topic and developing a hypothesis.  The final component of this section is a writing assignment that will eventually become the Introduction to the course's final paper.

The first two weeks of the course focus on research statements and hypotheses.  As mentioned in the last post, students are pushed to select a research topic in the first week which is refined in the second.  In the second week of classes, we went from a broad topic noted in the last post, to a clear, focused, and specific research question accompanied by a hypothesis grounded in basic economic theory and a strong rationale for the question.  Students presented their work in Assignment #1.  The rubric for Assignment #1 is here.

Class discussions of clear, focused, and specific research questions and corresponding hypotheses and rationales are summarized in my PowerPoint slides found here:

Lecture 3
Lecture 4

I implement several in-class worksheets to encourage deliberate thinking about Assignment #1 (found in the PPTs) and familiarize students with the grading rubric by having them peer review the drafts of two other students' Assignment #1.  Additionally, I share a few introductions from papers I authored so that students can see examples of a final product.

The largest challenge is communicating economics principles in a course without an economics prerequisite.  Since methods is the focus of the course, I cannot spend an inordinate amount of time on the principles.  I am keeping it simple by introducing the principles they will apply in their research papers: scarcity, opportunity cost, making decisions at the margin, and response to incentives.  Next, I introduce students to the economic way of thinking about policy by reading selected chapters from Hazlitt's Economics in One Lesson.  Students are given discussion questions to guide their reading and we have a lively class discussion lasting about 30 minutes on the reading.  Finally, to avoid the common reaction of recommending throwing government (our) money at any problem, throughout the semester we are reading chapters from Chris Coyne's Doing Bad by Doing Good.  This book highlights the importance of thinking beyond the first stage of aid (and the dangers of not doing so), considering the seen and the unseen, and addressing policy making from an economic perspective.  Class discussions accompany these assigned chapters. 

Take aways:
1) I will likely adopt a modified approach of this course in my econometrics course, particularly the deliberate discussion and development of the research question and hypothesis.  After one assignment, my INQ 260 students are proving to be better than the typical senior in my econometrics course with respect to the issues covered in Assignment #1 despite being on average less experienced writers and economists.  I have incorrectly been relying on prior courses to cover the details of good writing and research.

2) The chemistry of the class is great.  Students ask questions, work with each other, focus on in-class assignments, and by all appearances seem to enjoy the topic, each other, and the course.

In the next post I will cover the next section of the course: The Literature Review

Happy writing,   

Fall 2017 and plans for 2018: Running

My awesome Team Athena

For the first time, I dedicated myself to doing enough USATF Masters LDR races on the Grand Prix circuit to count my final points in the age group rankings.  Last year I competed in two races, but one needs three races for your points to count in the series rankings.  (Your top five races count for points.) This year I upped my races to four. Although a good amount of travel (plane) is required for most of the races, the experiences are worth it.  Being surrounded by fellow motivated masters runners is inspiring.

I started off the season with the road mile in Flint, MI, a race that I previously blogged about.  You can read that here.  The rest of my fall racing season focused on the two USATF cross country races and the road 5K. 

I put in a solid training block over the summer and early fall, getting my weekly mileage up into the 60's per week, two days of resistance band training, and several days of swimming.  The next race was the road 5K October 1 in Syracuse, NY.  The course is flat and fast with only a minor hill at the start and 400 meters from the finish.  I felt TERRIBLE and ran well slower than my goal of sub-19:00, although I did continue to compete to the finish line out-kicking two ladies in my age group.  I finished 10th overall and 5th in my age group in 19:10.

Next up was the first cross country race (October 15) in Boston at the famed Franklin Park. As a Groton School senior, I ran my first cross country race (5K) there 25 years earlier!  I felt very strong in the race and competed well finishing 7th overall and 5th in my age group.  I followed Coach Tom's race plan and ran within myself until the Bear Cage Hill (something that destroyed me when I was 17 years old), then went for broke to the finish.  Everyone seemed to run a bit slow on the course, which is not fast but also not slow.  I did manage to run faster than I did back in 1992!  Two of the best things about the weekend: 1) rooming with the amazing Trish Bulter and 2) seeing Tim Cox for the first time in decades!

Between miles 1 and 2

Running with the fastest Grandma I know, Trish Butler

Tim Cox has not changed a bit

My final USATF race was the 6K cross country race in Lexington, KY (December 9).  Now that course was HARD! Particularly a large hill heading into the finish (women go up it twice, men three times.)  The morning was bitterly cold and windy, with everyone racing in more coverage/layers than is typical.  I used the same strategy as the race in Boston, holding back until after we moved up the hill the first time (at about 1.75 miles out of 3.75). I then ran downhill as hard as I could reasonably go and held on.  It was encouraging in the later stages to be passing people on such a challenging course.  This was the most competitive race of the season, and I was pleased with a 15th overall and 8th age group placing.  My placings over the season were enough for me to finish 2nd overall in the USATF LDR Grand Prix for the 40-44 age group!  One treat: my husband Michael was able to come to this race (he was also at the mile in August), and we got to catch up with some friends from Lexington. 

First loop...near an Olympian!!!

Starting my charge...and trying to get away from the speedy Tania Fischer

Out with friends Darshak and John! We clean up sometimes.

So, what is next? I took some time off after the XC race and then started on a two-year plan...I believe that I have not yet run to my potential in the marathon. I have a sabbatical coming up in Spring 2019.  I am going to focus on the marathon for the next two years, taking advantage of the sabbatical (when I am not writing my book!).  I may not run faster than my current PR of 2:57, but I can try.  If I don't give it a go, I will never know.

Currently I am working on bringing my tempo pace down so that I can hold 6:10-6:15 pace for 4-6 miles. That seems to be my sweet spot. We are working on speed through the winter since I have access to an indoor track facility and I will do a half marathon in March.  After that half, I will build my mileage up from the 50-60 per week that I am currently doing (on 6 days) to 70ish and race Grandmas Marathon in June.  One addition to my training that I have made is one heavy lifting (for me) day to complement the resistance band work.  If nothing else, the muscles look good!

Happy tempo,

Economics and Crises: Teaching my first general education course (Part 1)

This semester I am teaching a course in the Roanoke College Intellectual Inquiry curriculum (the name of our general education program.)  My course is titled INQ 260EC Economics and Crises. All students must take two of the INQ 260 courses, as required by the general education curriculum. These courses focus on teaching social science methodology and require significant writing. My course was approved by the Faculty last spring and I am teaching it for the first time this semester.

Given this is my first time teaching a course outside of the Economics Program I am a bit anxious, but I thought that I would create a series of blog posts about its progress for my pedagogy pals and for my future reference.

This post will focus on the content and purpose of the course with some specific comments about the first week (last week.)

The INQ 260 courses focus on a question and teach social science methodology from the perspective of the faculty member.  I proposed my course (and it was accepted) as one that investigates how economists study crises. These crises include poverty, war, natural disaster and may vary from semester to semester depending on current events.  Each semester, I pick a country and a data set to focus daily lectures and lessons and from which students will frame their semester research project.

This semester I am using Nepal with a focus on the devastation created by the April 25, 2015 earthquake.  Nepal is ripe with other crises for students to study as well, including poverty, violence against women, and child health issues. 

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) began the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) program in 1984 which conducts surveys in developing countries that focus on women and children's issues like fertility, family planning, and health.  Currently there are five DHS data sets available for Nepal, including the 2015-2016 survey which was completed after the earthquake. The DHS data sets are commonly used in the development and health economics literature, and the data sets pertaining to Nepal will be the primary data resources for my course.  As a complement to the DHS data, the program offers STATcompiler which is how my students, with no required statistics background, will create visual analytics for their research project.

This semester, we will cover the steps of the research process including:
1) Creating a research question and hypothesis
2) Conducting a literature review
3) Using and analyzing data to address the research question
4) Interpreting the results
5) Using the results to frame policy

The end result is an original research paper for each student based upon the question they devise in the first few weeks.

Want to know more about the course details? You can see my syllabus here and lecture slides from Lecture 1 and Lecture 2. 

So far students have selected broad research topics which we will narrow this week. Students began selecting their broad topic after Lectures 1 and 2 (provided above) and with the help of the summary of key findings from the 2015 DHS-Nepal.  I am pleased with the range of issues students have selected:

A few additional notes on the first week:
1) Of the 25 students, 22 are women! Given I teach economics, this ratio is usually the reverse.
2) The students come from many different majors, although a few are economics majors and are using the course as an elective in our major.
3) Encouragingly, I had 100% attendance both days of class last week.
4) Following #3, everyone did their reading and were ready for discussion (yes, only one week in, but still, YAY!)
5) Again per #3, students selected broad topics for the semester project on Thursday and each student worked diligently to make their choice.

Each week or so I will provide updates for those interested in pedagogy.  The updates will also help me formulate a pedagogy manuscript after the semester is over.  I would love to hear your feedback.

Thanks,

Venting and a (legal) product testimonial

Recently I have made several social media posts about the frustration that masters athletes, including myself, have with the rise of doping amongst older athletes. While legal in some respects, many prescribed anti-aging tools, such as testosterone and human growth hormone, are considered illegal by USATF/WADA and other athletic governing bodies because of their performance enhancing capabilities. I suspect that some who use these products and compete justify the use since it is 1) prescribed by a doctor or 2) the Rx is "just leveling the playing field" for them. And getting a TUE for competition...you know what you are doing is wrong and you are using the system to get around it.

Our health and abilities depreciate as we age (the health economist had to enter at some point), and pure athletes (for lack of a better term) must adjust training regimens. Currently I am running quite well for me and believe that I have several PRs left in me ranging from the 1500 meters to marathon. To get to those PRs, however, I must respect my age and body and modify my training accordingly. I cannot run over 100 miles a week as I did when I was in my 20s and 30s since it takes longer for me to recover at age 42. I can't hammer every run. (You are right to be suspicious of 40+ year old athletes posting ridiculous training regimens on Strava. If it sounds "incredible" it is probably not credible.)

This season, which is focused on road and cross country races 5K and 6K in distance, I am consistently running over 50 miles a week and will approach 60 a few times in the next 4-6 weeks. To replace the aerobic work from the decreased running mileage, I swim several times a week. Not only does swimming provide excellent aerobic (and anaerobic when I do speed sessions) benefits, but the water and its weight provides a massaging effect which helps with recovery. 

Additionally, as an older athlete my recovery days must truly be recovery days. I take one day off completely from running. Some of my easy run days are at a 9:00 minute per mile pace or slower (something the younger me would have been ashamed of, but now I embrace with pride.) The little things are also increasingly important as we age: deep tissue massage, stretching, strength training, icing, diet, etc.

Per the diet, I do take some legal (in all respects) supplements, many produced by my long-time sponsor Hammer Nutrition. (NOTE: This is a testimonial. I am not a trained physician or nutritionist so do not take my testimonial as such.) One that I starting taking in the last year to help with recovery is Essential Mg, which is a magnesium supplement. Magnesium, an electrolyte, aids in many things including metabolism, muscle contraction, blood sugar regulation, and blood pressure normalization. I get plenty of magnesium through cashews and other foods, but the supplement brings me up a level as I hit my heavy training volumes. I take Hammer's Essential Mg each evening (one serving is 200 mg of magnesium) before bed. Without scientific evidence, and relying solely on anecdotal evidence, I have fewer sugar crashes on training runs, feel more energetic when I wake up in the morning, and am training on an overall high level for a 40+ year old female. Magnesium is not the only thing potentially causing this (see the "little things" above and my weekly training), but I believe it is a contributor. Like all of Hammer's products, Essential Mg is easy on the stomach. If you are looking for more information on the product, check out their web page.

Before signing off, to make sure that you are not accidentally taking a product that is banned by your athletic governing body, use the Global DRO site to check any Rx or supplement. (HINT: Magnesium is not a banned substance by WADA but HGH is!)

Mg is all good

HGH is not good at all

Hammer on,

Gap in consumer sentiment by party affiliation grows in Virginia

Each quarter I produce the Virginia Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Report for the Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research.

In the current report I paid attention to the historical and current divide in sentiment by party affiliation. Sentiment is driven, not surprisingly, by politics and if "your team" is in power. The size of the gap, however, I find remarkable.

Consumer sentiment by party (blue=democrat, red=republican, dashed line=historical average)

It is also notable that sentiment in the Charlottesville area is no different from trend. Our calling for this poll began the day of the conflicts in the area. Sample sizes at the regional level are small, which is why I report it in context to the historical average and deviations from that average.

You can read the report in full here.

Keep you sentiments up,

Race report x 3

Over an eight-day period I raced three times in distances ranging from the mile to ten miles. The proximity in the timing of the races was not on purpose, rather races that I wanted to do for specific training reasons that happened to fall that way on the calendar. After it all, my body feels good and I learned a lot about where I am in training as I head into the meat of my cross country training.

Fab 5K (Salem, VA)
The Fab 5K is a popular race in Green Hill Park (Salem, VA) put on by Mountain Junkies. The course is mostly flat (see elevation chart) and a mix of road, grass, and gravel. It is a perfect race to transition from the roads to cross country. It is one of the more competive events in the area due to being one of the few races with a prize purse.

Fab 5K course profile (from my GPS)

I had several goals coming into the event.
1) Get the masters course record (20:23)
2) Run tough between mile 1 and 2 (Coach Clifford and I are going to pick one thing to focus on in each race, and that was it for this race.)
3) Walk away with a smile regardless of time

Check, check, and check. I ran 19:56 (well off my 19:07 best for the course), setting a new masters record. I finished third overall and won a little $$. I pressed after the mile mark (a mostly grass section), although I did falter over the last 1200 meters suggesting an area of training focus in the coming months. I am going to try to increase the distance that I successfully press the pace in races as well as the season goes on. Some key workouts will include fast 200s after tempo sessions.

3rd place female, top master

USATF Masters Road Mile National Championships (Flint, MI)
I am racing four Masters National Championships races this year, starting with the road mile in Flint, in an attempt to place well in the USATF Masters Individual Grand Prix for the 40-44 age group. The mile is not a typical event for me. Prior Michigan I only did one road mile (almost twenty years ago.)

The largest ever masters field gathered in Flint for the event. The women's field was deeper than any Masters National Championship that I have competed. My goals going into the race were:
1) Do not get passed in the last 400 and PUMP THOSE ARMS (Coach Clifford focus for this race)
2) Place in the top 10 (due to the depth of the field)
3) Finish knowing that I could not have gone one bit faster

Again, check, check, and check. I am thrilled to say that I finished THIRD! Coming into the final turn (about 200 meters to the finish) my eyes must have been popping out of my head because 1) I could not believe how far up in the field I was and 2) I was running for my life to hold off last year's winner (Tammy Nowik, who I had just passed) and the BAMF Alisa Harvey (a sub 2:00 800 meter running back in her prime.)

I went out hard, but held just enough back that the uphill start would not take away from a mad dash to the finish. At 400 meters I was with Alisa Harvey and well back from the top three (Tolan, Gacek, and Nowik.) I assumed that Heather Webster was lurking somewhere behind us as she finished in the top three at XC nationals in December and under 18:10 at Syracuse. After the turn on Avon (~800 meters) it appeared that Nowik was getting gapped. Coach Clifford said that when I sensed that it was time to make a move, that I had to go then not let up. I went. Alisa came with me. We passed Nowik after 1200 on a downhill section. As I turned onto 1st street we had ~200 meters to the finish, I could feel the ladies behind me and I could hear Coach Clifford in my head saying "Do not get passed in the last 400 and PUMP THOSE ARMS!" I ran the last 200 like I was running for my life knowing that I had two very fast ladies on my behind and that I would be devastated to lose a top three finish over the closing meters. I think I peed my pants a bit I was running so hard.

Anyone looking at the times from the race might think that they are soft...but the course was long and very challenging. Everyone who ran the course prior the race knew that it would be tactical (due to the hill at the start and a slight incline into the finish) and not a place to run fast. The course is the same for everyone, so anyone there faced the same challenges. (And anyone just looking at times and saying "If I would have gone I would have beaten _____" can put that you know where.)

Crim 1 Mile course profile (from my GPS)

Crim 10 Miler (Flint, MI)
I have always wanted to do the famed Crim 10 Miler, so I decided to race it given I would already be in Flint at the Crim Festival. Given I raced the mile the night before, I viewed it as a very hard training run and a way to build my endurance. My goal was to finish under 70:00 based on how tired I was and the difficulty of the course.

Crim 10 Mile course profile (from my GPS)

We were fortunate to have perfect race conditions (under 50 degrees at the start!) I managed to run 68:36, with the last 0.12 (my watch got the course as 10.12 miles because I do not run tangents well) at 5:12 pace. As a test I pushed into the finish earlier and faster than I thought I could handle since it really did not matter if I blew up. I believe that little tests and challenges like that will only benefit me in the championship races this fall.

Happy face after Crim 10

After these three early season races I am excited for fall training and know where I need to focus. My speed seems to be there as does my endurance, but I need to bring the two together for a fast 5K. Tempo, tempo, tempo!

Race on,

Child health and women's asset ownership

Flag of Papua New Guinea

Several years ago, Yana Rodgers (Rutgers University) contacted me about applying for a contracting project with the Asian Development Bank using the 2009-2010 Papua New Guinea Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES). Of course I said "yes" to such a great opportunity and we were offered the project soon thereafter. We worked on the project for about a year and a half. Now that the report is done, we are using the data to address research questions that came up during the report. We have several questions, each likely a stand-alone paper.

Our first paper, Women's Asset Ownership and Children's Nutritional Status: Evidence from Papua New Guinea, was recently presented at the 2017 Biennial International Health Economic Association (iHEA) Meeting (Boston, MA) and submitted to a journal for publication. We are also hopeful for a presentation at the 2018 American Economic Association Annual Meeting. You can see the iHEA presentation slides here and the draft of our paper here. The abstract is here:

This study uses household survey data from 2009-2010 to examine how women’s asset ownership is associated with children’s nutritional status in Papua New Guinea, a country with some of the most severe child malnutrition in the world.  Women’s sole ownership of assets is expected to strengthen their bargaining power within the home, which increases investments in children’s health.  Results from ordinary least squares regressions point to beneficial effects of maternal asset ownership for children’s height-for-age, weight-for-height, and weight-for-age Z-scores, even after controlling for household characteristics.  Additional results from detailed quantile regressions indicate that these effects occur primarily at the median, although in some cases the strongest impacts occur at the lowest portions of the distribution.

The primary issue addressed in the paper is the impact of mother's asset ownership on the health of her children in Papua New Guinea. The HIES data offers the opportunity to examine this issue at the individual level. Six assets are identified, along with individual ownership status, in the survey: livestock, poultry, fishing equipment, agricultural equipment, furniture, and housing. A factor analysis grouped these into what we termed assets related to 1) food production and 2) shelter.

The WHO definitions of wasting, stunting, and underweight are used to quantify child health. Surveyors took these measurements in each home for children under the age of 5.

We employed OLS and quantile regression to estimate the impact of mother's asset ownership on child health, using the z-scores for each child health metric. OLS estimates capture the "action" at the mean and the quantile estimates capture the "action" across the distribution. We used the 0.05, 0.10, 0.50, 0.90, and 0.95 quantiles. Assets entered our regressions in various, separate ways, including several indexes we devised to reduce multicollinearity.

The results suggest that mother's asset ownership matters, in a positive way, to her children's health particularly at the middle of the distribution.

Conference participants and colleagues who read our paper offered a few comments which we will likely follow up with in a future paper. Those comments included:
1) What is the impact of the father on child health?  (NOTE: Father's education was not significant.)
2) Does the father's view of female autonomy matter?

If you are interested in more details about the paper or the results, please read it using the link above.

We would appreciate your input,

First few weeks

Briggs Field, MIT

I have been fully back to training after marathon/cellulitis for two weeks and am trying to be patient and adapt to training and the weather. So far so good.

Not surprisingly I am building back strength and endurance on land and in the pool and trying to incorporate running on soft surfaces as much as possible.

Last week was what I image to be a typical one for the next month or so (although the mileage will increase over that period.) I was in Boston Sunday-Tuesday presenting a paper at the International Health Economic Association Meeting, so I got to run in some new places.

Monday was 6 x 3:00 at tempo interval pace with 2:00 jogs between. My hotel was near MIT so I used Briggs Field, their intramural grass field (real grass, not artificial turf) which spanned 2 x 3 soccer fields. Perfect! Given that I will race 2-4 cross country races this fall, practicing running on surfaces that are not smooth like a road or track is important. My paces per mile were 6:10-6:20 for each 3:00 segment which I was pleased with. On the track or road that would have been 6:00-6:10 pace for a tempo effort.

I used fields 1-9 which all connect even with the track!

Due to travel I did not do the second workout until Saturday. I had a 20:00 tempo run. I have a love/hate relationship with tempo. I hate the pain but love the results. It was a typical humid morning in Virginia and I was OK with the 6:36/mile average pace (through three miles in 6:38, 6:36, 6:34) especially since I descended slightly and did it alone. Looking back at training from this time last year (which is not always a wise thing to do as we age) I am well ahead of what I was averaging back then.

Sunday was a longish (not long for a marathon runner) 1:20 run on the hills of Fincastle which went well even on the tired legs.

What I was most excited about was my swim session! I got a new batch of workouts from Coach Brett. One of the workouts I did was a total of 5,000 yds. with a main set of:

17 x 100 kick on 1:30 for 1-5, 1:25 for 6-10, 1:20 for 11-14, and 1:15 for 15-17.
17 x 100 free with fins and paddles do the same way except on 1:35, 1:30, 1:25, and 1:20

I did it! I love swimming and working with Brett who is so positive and encouraging. Plus it builds me into a better runner. Win-win-win.

In the next post I will write about the conference in Boston and our paper.

Run & swim,

Starting over

My blog fell into disuse! 10 months passed before I could blink. No excuses. I'm just going to get it back on track (and a face lift before too long!)

This post will focus on the running part of the Running Economist. I will save the exciting projects that I am working on and have had published recently for another post.

The good news: my fitness post knee surgery and last year's battle with vocal chord dysfunction progressed throughout the year. I got into 3:02-3:05ish marathon shape for the Wrightsville Beach Marathon (March 2017) put on by my coach Tom Clifford, but the weather did not cooperate. Most people, including me, were slowed by the heat and humidity and I ran just under 3:08 (and won the female masters division.)

Coach Clifford suggested that I recoup and try a second round at Grandma's Marathon in June. I recovered from Wrightsville Beach faster than any marathon before and had a great training cycle going into Grandma's getting into 2:58-3:02ish shape. And then....I got stuck by a thorn a week before the race.

A thorn! Yes. I made it through 20+ mile runs, countless tempo and interval sessions, 3-4 x week swim workouts, but was felled by a thorn. I have no idea how the thorn found my finger. I do not have roses. But it did and with it brought a nasty case of cellulitis. A few days before the race my entire arm was swollen and the lymph nodes in my neck were inflamed. I went to the hospital in Duluth Thursday (yes, I went to the race hopeful it would just go away!) and was put on antibiotics. I do not run well while on antibiotics, but that was better than letting the infection get worse than it already was.

I went through the motions and toed the line Saturday morning having made a deal with myself: Execute your race plan, but if your body tells you that the infection is bigger than your heart, DROP OUT. No running race is worth dying for.

A few miles in I felt weak and not my peppy self. I focused on staying positive and hoped that my body would loosen up. It was not to be. By 6 miles I needed a walk break. I took three more before I got to the drop out zone with buses to the finish at 13.75 miles. Dropping out was the best decision for me. Had I pushed through I could have spread the infection and worse. I felt OK about it knowing this and that I gave it a go. There were no "what ifs".

Tears were shed on the bus back and on the phone with Coach Clifford. I was so darn frustrated. Following his suggestion, I took a few hours to get the hurt out, and then focused on the positive and the future.

So what is the future?

Several USATF Masters races and a full cross country season. I am excited! My tentative plan is:

August 19 - FAB 5K (Roanoke) (half grass, half pavement)
August 25 - USATF Masters Road Mile National Championship (Flint, MI)
August 26 - Crim 10 Miler (Flint, MI) (...yes the next day. But I am there anyway, so why not)
September 9 - Knights Crossing (Roanoke) (XC)
October 6 - Royal Invitational (Charlotte) (XC)
October 15 - USATF Masters 5K XC National Championships (Boston)
October 28 - Runway 5K (Charlotte) (road and a MAYBE)
November 4 - USATF 5K National Championships (road and a MAYBE)
November 23 - Wrightsville Beach Turkey Trot (road)
December 9 - USATF Masters 6K XC National Championships (Lexington, KY)

I took time after Grandma's to heal (similar to recovery for a completed marathon) and started intervals and pool work two weeks ago. After a few days of feeling sluggish (the last of the antibiotics and infection?), I am back to feeling strong. With my awesome training buddy Sarah, I hit a 20:00 tempo faster than I have in at least two years despite the humidity (farty shoes by mile one) and did a broken 500 yard test set in the pool faster than I did to start last swim season. My strength from six months of marathon training is still there. Whew!

My goal is to stay positive, push my limits, and embrace the training for the rest of the year. I will make more training posts this season not because anyone is interested, but because putting it out there holds me accountable. I can be my own worst enemy in the mind game arena, so hopefully writing and posting my thoughts will keep me on the positive track when things get challenging.

I am on Strava (as Alice Kassens), so follow me!

Welcome back to the grind,

Gangsters, Scoundrels, and Thieves: Teaching Economics Using Nefarious Historical Characters

This weekend I am giving a presentation at the UNCW Economics Teaching Conference regarding using the Gold Rush confidence man 'Soapy' Smith to teach the notion of product differentiation. Telling stories is an excellent way to engage students and add some fun to your lecture (for both you and the students!)

You can find my slides for the presentation below and a copy of the paper, which is forthcoming in the Journal of Economic and Finance Education.

Gansters, scoundrels, and thieves – teaching economics using nefarious historical characters from Alice Louise Kassens

Read the full article here (the working paper version.)

Fall plans, training update, and race report

After experiencing a disappointing spring track season due to strange breathing issues (which we now think was vocal chord dysfunction after undergoing eight tests and consults to rule out more serious causes) I took the second half of June off from running and swam minimally. Starting in July, Coach Tom put me on a 10 week base-building plan after a few weeks of getting my running legs back and Coach Brett got my swimming rolling.

During those 10 weeks I built my running mileage up to 70 miles a week, did up to sixty minutes of Mill Mountain repeats a week (with my partner in crime Sarah), and swam four days a week consistently. I enjoy long hill repeats (for example 4 sets of 10:00 up Mill Mountain, jog down recovery) because of the focus on form and positive self-talk rather than splits, which is particularly helpful when just coming back into form in the heat/humidity of summer.

Three weeks ago we moved from base training to speed adaptation. Rather than having 2-3 workouts a week consisting of hills (Tuesday), aerobic threshold (Thursday), and a long run-workout (AT in middle of long run), I have 2-3 workouts a week consisting of tempo/speed mix (Tuesday), tempo (Thursday), and long run-workout (AT in middle of long run.) The purpose of this phase is to reintroduce my legs to running fast while still building strength. For example, this past Tuesday I hit the track for 3 sets of 2,000 meters at tempo effort (6:25-6:30), 1:00 jog, 1 x 300 meters at mile pace (58-59) (4:00 jogs between sets.)

I the past I have raced too soon and let the poor results get in my head. This season Coach Tom told me that I could not even pick out a race until he said so. I listened and actually enjoyed embracing the grind of training. He gave me the OK to pick a race a few weeks ago and I selected the Virginia 10 Miler 4 Mile event. The course is brutal and I have never done it (I have done the 10 Mile race several times), so there was no pressure.

Virginia 10 Miler 4 Mile Race

September 24, 2016 was a warm day for the 10 Miler competitors, but not an issue for those of us in the shorter event. I ran the first downhill mile and a half very controlled (first mile 6:07), focused on form and grinding up the hills from 1.5 to 3.5 (mile 2: 6:26, mile 3: 6:32), and giving it my all into the finish (mile 4: 6:17.) I was pleased with my strength and form and how I kicked any negative thoughts out of my head when they popped up. I won the female masters and overall race in just over 25:30 (6:25/mile average; the course was 4.03 miles) which was exciting. The biggest surprise was the $250 prize for the win (I didn't even look at prizes before the race!) 

At the top of the last big climb

 I am pleased with my early season fitness and firmly believe in my training plan. (I ignore those who mock my slow miles on recovery days.) 

The rest of my season looks like this:

October 7 - Royal Invitational 5K (Charlotte, NC; cross country)

November 6 - USATF Masters Cross Country Championships (Tallahassee, FL; 5K)

November 24 - Wrightsville Beach Turkey Trot (Wilmington, NC; road 5K)

December 2 - Homer Bast Invitational (5k, indoor track, Roanoke College)

December 10 - USATF Club Cross Country Championships (Tallahassee, FL; 6K)

Additionally I am swimming in two swim meets (October 22-23 in Charlotte and November 20 in Greensboro.)

 Good luck in your season and I will leave you with a few MAlice pictures from the 4 Miler,

Updates on the Virginia Economy

Over the past few weeks the Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research has released two of my reports regarding the Virginia economy: one on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations and one regarding the real estate market.

You can read each by using the links below. As you will see, sentiments in the Commonwealth are strong and households report rising incomes (which is in keeping with national results.) There is a sentiment disparity by party as shown in the graphic below (VAICS=Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment.) This survey was conducted before the recent gasoline shortage.

In the real estate markets, inventories are falling resulting in rising home prices. In the graphic below for sale inventories = green bars, median list price = blue line (all data from www.zillow.com but graphic is my own.)

The real estate index varies considerably across the Commonwealth. The break even value for the index is zero where equal shares of respondents believe the current real estate market has improved over the last year as those who believe it has worsened. The figure below shows the strength in the Tidewater, Central Virginia, and the Tidewater particularly relative to Southwest Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley.

Read the full reports here: 

Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations

Real Estate

Keep your sentiments up,

My interview with Good Day Virginia on Brexit and the US economy...and a hilarious freeze frame

Per my last post, today I did an interview with a local morning news show (Good Day Virginia) on Brexit and the US economy. You can watch that interview by clicking here.

When you click on the link be sure to get a good chuckle out of the freeze frame for the video.

Brexit at Wimbledon,

A few economics statistics regarding Brexit

Tomorrow morning I will be on Good Day Virginia (WFXR, Fox) to talk about the economics of Brexit. I pulled some data and created some graphics during my preparation this weekend. Since I cannot share the visuals on TV, I thought that I would post them here. You can click on them to enlarge.

I will post a link to the interview later, or you can watch it live around 8:00 am on WFXR (Fox)!

See you tomorrow morning,

Health care in the workplace - A presentation

Tonight I presented on health care in the workplace to the Roanoke College Management Institute Class of 2016. We had informative conversations and I learned as much (if not more) from them as they did from me. You can see my slides below.

Thanks,

Health care in the workplace (TMI 2016) from Alice Louise Kassens

2016 First Quarter Consumer Sentiment Report...plus some new questions regarding gas prices

My Virginia Consumer Sentiment and Price Expectations Report came out on Tuesday (originally we planned on Monday, but Trump came to the area, and I would definitely lose a media battle with him!)

Given the low gas prices, we added some questions regarding uses of the savings at the pump. Eighty-seven percent of respondents report savings, but only a third plan to spend that money. The graphic below shows the top four areas those respondents plan to spend their money:

You can read the full report here and listen to my brief interview with WFIR here.

Here is to better sentiment,

Organized crime murders in Chicago, 1894-1930

Ever wonder how many murders were tied to organized crime in Chicago? Perhaps an odd thing to think about for some, but not for someone researching a book regarding the economics of crime and Capone's Chicago.

Northwestern University School of Law digitized Chicago homicide data from 1870-1930 and made it available to the public. I pulled those homicides related to organized crime and sorted by method. There is no record of an organized crime related homicide in Chicago until 1894: Gus Colliander, shot outside a polling place by an unknown man November 6, 1894. According to articles from the Chicago Tribune archives, Colliander was shot during a gang raid of a polling place at No. 117 Oak Street.

Source: Chicago Tribune, November 9, 1894 (online archives)

Organized crime homicides in Chicago thus began long before Al Capone. The number of organized crime related homicides drastically increased during the Capone era (at his peak between 1925 and 1930.) The most common methods of organized crime killing was the infamous "hit," or murder for hire, followed by drive by shootings. The table below shows these two methods over time, with the Capone era marked off by black lines. The peak year for mob hits during this time was 1930 with 28 incidences; the total number of homicides recorded that year in Chicago was 763 (of which 56 were mob related.)

Source: "Homocide in Chicago" and author's calculations

One soul among the 28 hits in 1930 was Walter Wakefield. Wakefield, a known Capone gang member, was shot in his home (2900 South Wells Street) by Frank 'Dale' Delbano on April 20, 1930. Two other men (Frank Debra and Joseph Special) were also shot and killed. Delbano was arrested the following day, but no charges were ever filed.

What would you like to know about the Capone era in Chicago?