Gap in consumer sentiment by party affiliation grows in Virginia

Each quarter I produce the Virginia Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Report for the Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research.

In the current report I paid attention to the historical and current divide in sentiment by party affiliation. Sentiment is driven, not surprisingly, by politics and if "your team" is in power. The size of the gap, however, I find remarkable.

Consumer sentiment by party (blue=democrat, red=republican, dashed line=historical average)

It is also notable that sentiment in the Charlottesville area is no different from trend. Our calling for this poll began the day of the conflicts in the area. Sample sizes at the regional level are small, which is why I report it in context to the historical average and deviations from that average.

You can read the report in full here.

Keep you sentiments up,

Updates on the Virginia Economy

Over the past few weeks the Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research has released two of my reports regarding the Virginia economy: one on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations and one regarding the real estate market.

You can read each by using the links below. As you will see, sentiments in the Commonwealth are strong and households report rising incomes (which is in keeping with national results.) There is a sentiment disparity by party as shown in the graphic below (VAICS=Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment.) This survey was conducted before the recent gasoline shortage.

In the real estate markets, inventories are falling resulting in rising home prices. In the graphic below for sale inventories = green bars, median list price = blue line (all data from www.zillow.com but graphic is my own.)

The real estate index varies considerably across the Commonwealth. The break even value for the index is zero where equal shares of respondents believe the current real estate market has improved over the last year as those who believe it has worsened. The figure below shows the strength in the Tidewater, Central Virginia, and the Tidewater particularly relative to Southwest Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley.

Read the full reports here: 

Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations

Real Estate

Keep your sentiments up,

2016 First Quarter Consumer Sentiment Report...plus some new questions regarding gas prices

My Virginia Consumer Sentiment and Price Expectations Report came out on Tuesday (originally we planned on Monday, but Trump came to the area, and I would definitely lose a media battle with him!)

Given the low gas prices, we added some questions regarding uses of the savings at the pump. Eighty-seven percent of respondents report savings, but only a third plan to spend that money. The graphic below shows the top four areas those respondents plan to spend their money:

You can read the full report here and listen to my brief interview with WFIR here.

Here is to better sentiment,

August 2015 (Q3) Virginia Consumer Sentiment and Price Expectations Summary Report

To better promote our work at the Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, we are generating summary reports of some of our polls. I just put together one for the August Consumer Sentiment and Price Expectations survey conducted for the third quarter of 2015.

Enjoy,

August 2015 Consumer Sentiment Report

Sentiment remains at record levels (since the index began in November 2011) in the third quarter of 2015, but still below the preliminary national number (see figure below, blue=US, orange=VA). Of those who report their household finances are better now than a year ago, 77% cite rising income.

You can read my full report for the Roanoke College IPOR here.

U.S. data downloaded from FRED 8/23/2015; blue line is U.S.Consumer Sentiment; black line is
a two year moving average; orange bars are VA Consumer Sentiment

Keep your sentiments up!

May 2015 Real Estate Index

My report on the real estate market in the Commonwealth came out this week. Several questions concerning the real estate market are included in the survey used to gather data for the consumer sentiment report. We (the amazing people in the Roanoke College PR department) try to spread the releases out by about a week.

Virginians are generally optimistic about the current and future real estate markets. An interesting find is that buyers in Southwest VA are quite positive, likely due to a belief of housing surpluses from departing Norfolk Southern employees.

Black line indicates "robust" market

You can read the report here. The Roanoke Times wrote an article about the report (found here) and I interviewed with WVTF.

Consumer sentiment remains strong in Virginia

My latest consumer sentiment and inflation expectations report came out two days ago. You can find the report here. Things are particularly strong in Southwest Virginia and the Tidewater. Southwest VA has apparently absorbed the departure announcements from Norfolk Southern and USPS, while the Tidewater is looking beyond the effects of sequestration.

Consumer sentiment values (y-axis) by region; current value=orange dash,
 regional average=blue dot, standard deviation=black line.

I am thankful for the interviews by WVTF, WFIR, and the Roanoke Times on the current release. You can listen to the WFIR interview here.

Feeling optimistic,

Virginia Real Estate Index Report is here

This week the Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research released my Real Estate Index Report for the first quarter of 2015.

Overall the market is looking strong, with sellers more optimistic about the future. The table below shows the February 2015 index values for Virginia. An index value greater than zero means that more people are optimistic than pessimistic.

Virginia Real Estate Indexes 

You can read the report here and/or watch an interview I did for WDBJ7 below.

Consumers optimistic about 2015 real estate market

February Consumer Sentiment in Virginia Hits Record Levels

My quarterly Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations report for the Roanoke College IPOR came out last week. Our index reached the highest level since we started producing the index in November 2011. The Virginia index values compared to the national values for the last two years are shown below:

Surprisingly, gas prices do not seem to play a large role in household finances and thus perceptions of the economy. Less than 28% of Virginians report gas prices influence their household finances a great deal.

You can read the complete report here.

Additionally, you can watch an ABC 13 story concerning the report below.

WSET.com - ABC13

August Real Estate Index: The market is strong

Each quarter, in addition to the Consumer Sentiment and Price Expectations Report, I also produce the Real Estate Index using the methodology developed by the Sienna College Research Institute.

The figure below illustrates views on the real estate market in Virginia.

A measure of zero indicates an equal share of respondents feeling optimistic as those who feel pessimistic about the housing market. Perceptions of the market remain strong since the second quarter of 2014 with the only loss occurring in beliefs about buying in the next year. The Fed is likely going to raise rates in 2015 which is a potential determinant of the loss in optimism. 

You can read the entire report here.

The next set of reports will be released in November,

Two weeks of aqua training, lots of writing, and the start of the new school year

Deadlines, deadlines, deadlines...I need them. Luckily I had deadlines for two projects. One was the second draft of the gender inequality in Papua New Guinea for the ADB. We turned in a 131-page document on Friday. Whew! The project and results are interesting, and considerable inequalities exist in the country across a variety of issues. One that I analyzed was the gender differences in mode of transportation to health facilities. Below is one of the graphics I generated:

Of particular interest was share of urban male patients with TB taking public transportation. At advanced stages TB is quite contagious via coughing/sneezing, thus taking the bus puts others at risk. What else do you notice in this chart?

The second deadline was the August Consumer Sentiment Report which was released last week. An earlier post discusses the findings. Interestingly this report generated interest from some new media outlets including Clear Channel in Richmond, the Roanoke Times, and the Roanoke Star. The Times actually did their own write-up about the report rather than just reproducing our report. 

The 2014-15 AY began this week with faculty contracts beginning the prior week. I was elected the Faculty Moderator for the year so I had two obligations over the last two weeks: our first FAC meeting (which I Chair) and the first Faculty Meeting of the year. There is something terrifying about standing in front of a room full of Faculty and speaking, but once the first few minutes were over I was more relaxed. Thankfully there were no major goofs.

Training in the pool continued to be fun and challenging. I am going to swim in a small meet next Saturday in Asheville, NC, so I sought out help for my start and turn. It has been over 20 years since I last started off of the blocks. I found a great resource in the Roanoke area: the Gator Aquatic Center. I had two sessions with Brett Fonder and it is amazing what a more efficient turn can do for your time! He totally changed my turn, so that I push off from the wall on my back and do not roll over (freestyle) until I am away from the wall. We also worked on my start off the blocks. I am no longer terrified:) During a series of 50 free's off the blocks we got my time under :34 so I am hopeful that I can swim 32-ish in the meet next weekend. For real swimmers that is slow, but hey, I have been out of it for a long time! I am also entered in the 100 which will be a PR because I have never raced the event. 

Training over the last few weeks included several weight sessions (I can now do single leg squats on my leg that I had surgically repaired which is promising), AJ workouts, and swimming. Since I have missed a week, I will not bore you with two weeks of a daily training log, but I did have several sprint oriented swim workouts from Brett in preparation for the meet. I got in over 16,000 yds swimming this week, but a bit less the week before due to a crazy work schedule.

Here is to my goggles not filling with water in my races next weekend,

Consumer Sentiment in VA hits a record high

I have worked with the Roanoke College IPOR to produce the quarterly Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Reports since November 2011. Although the report has a short history, it is exciting to see new records (in the positive direction). The history of the Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment (VAICS, shown by orange bars) against the US measure (produced by the University of Michigan, shown by blue line) is shown below. The 2-period moving average of the US measure is shown in black. The national number is generated each month (that's what happens when you have a HUGE budget!).

You can read the full report here.

Things are better in VA. If you live in VA, do feel that way? If you live elsewhere, how are things where you are?

Confidently yours,